global warming signs in extreme weather events

Fires across Russia, record floods in Pakistan, a huge Greenland iceberg - this current unprecedented sequence of extreme weather events "matches" scientific projections of more frequent and intense extreme weather events due to global warming, says an organization of meteorologists from 189 countries.

"Several diverse extreme weather events are occurring concurrently around the world, giving rise to an unprecedented loss of human life and property. They include the record heatwave and wildfires in the Russian Federation, monsoonal flooding in Pakistan, rain-induced landslides in China, and calving of a large iceberg from the Greenland ice sheet," said the World Meteorological Organization in a statement August 11.

"These should be added to the extensive list of extreme weather-related events, such as droughts and fires in Australia and a record number of high-temperature days in the eastern United States of America, as well as other events that occurred earlier in the year," said the WMO, a specialized agency of the United Nations.

The World Meteorological Organization is the UN system's voice on the state and behavior of the Earth's atmosphere, its interaction with the oceans, the climate it produces and the resulting distribution of water resources.

"The occurrence of all these events at almost the same time raises questions about their possible linkages to the predicted increase in intensity and frequency of extreme events, for example, as stipulated in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report published in 2007," the WMO said.

The 2007 IPCC Summary for Policy Makers stated that "tthe type, frequency and intensity of extreme events are expected to change as Earth's climate changes, and these changes could occur even with relatively small mean climate changes. Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed, for example, increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events."

"While a longer time range is required to establish whether an individual event is attributable to climate change, the sequence of current events matches IPCC projections," the WMO said.

The meteorologists explained how each of the current extreme weather events arose.

The heatwave in the European part of the Russian Federation is associated with a persistent pressure ridge that appeared in June 2010. Initially, it was associated with the Azores high, but later was reinforced by a strong inflow of warm air from the Middle East.

More than 20 daily temperature records were broken including the absolute maximum temperature in Moscow. The high temperatures triggered massive forest and peat fires in the European part of the country. Some villages were burned completely, with smoke and smog adversely and greatly affecting the health and well-being of tens of millions of people.

The floods in Pakistan were caused by strong monsoon rains. According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department, the instant rain intensity reached 300 millimeters over a 36-hour period. The strong monsoon rains led to the highest water levels in 110 years in the Indus River in the northern part of the country, based on past records available from 1929. More areas in central and south Pakistan are affected by the floods.

In Pakistan, the death toll to date exceeds 1,600 people and more than six million others have been displaced. Some reports indicate that 40 million citizens have been affected by the floods.

The monsoon activity in Pakistan and other countries in Southeast Asia is aggravated by the La Nina phenomenon, now well established in the Pacific Ocean.

China also is experiencing its worst floods in decades. The recent death toll due to the mudslide in the Zhouqu county of Gansu province on August 7, exceeded 700, with more than 1,000 people missing. In addition, 12 million people are reported to have lost their homes owing to the recent floods.

On August 5, 2010, the MODIS sensor on NASA's Aqua satellite detected calving from the Petermann Glacier in northern Greenland. The largest chunk of ice to calve from the glacier in the past 50 years of observations and data (since 1962) measures more than 200 sq. km.

Tens of thousands of icebergs calve yearly from the glaciers of Greenland, but this one is very large and because of its size more typically resembles icebergs in the Antarctic.

Climate extremes have always existed, said the WMO, "but all the events cited above compare with, or exceed in intensity, duration or geographical extent, the previous largest historical events."

According to Roshydromet, Russia's Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, studies of the past climate show no record of similar high temperatures in Russia since the 10th and 11th centuries more than 1,000 years ago.

(Copyright Environment News Service (ENS) 2010. All rights reserved.)

The Pakistan flood and Global Warming

The Pakistan flood may be linked to global warming.

More difficult to prove is a possible connection between the disaster and global warming, which is being bandied about in the media. As climate scientists are often quick to point out, there is danger in ascribing any particular weather event to longer term trends, such as a rise in the Earth's temperatures. Still, there is some cause for concern.
Climate scientist Gavin Schmidt, who works for NASA and Columbia University, told The Daily Green that the Pakistan disaster, "Demonstrates that people are very vulnerable to weather-based changes. It's something that I don't think has been stressed enough." Schmidt added, "We're talking about more people affected than the entire population of New York City."
Schmidt acknowledged that it's very hard to make a connection to a single event when it comes to global warming, but he said we often see a statistical correlation between rising greenhouse gases and increasing frequency and severity of these types of disasters. He pointed to analysis published in the journal Nature that showed there was a much higher likelihood of the devastating European heat wave of 2003 as a result of our post-industrial atmosphere. "Things that used to be one-in-100 year events maybe now are one-in-25-year events," he explained. "It's important to remember that these kinds of anomalies increase in likelihood much faster than you might expect just looking at the few degrees of warming."
According to National Geographic, the northern Indian Ocean has warmed two degrees Fahrenheit since the 1970s. Warmer water releases more moisture into the air, which can lead to bigger monsoon rains. It's also true that the ongoing El Nino cycle is probably a factor, as the periodic warming of ocean waters can also intensify storms. "The key message is that it's not just natural variability and not just global warming," but a combination of both, Trenberth said.

Read more: http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/latest/pakistan-flood-460810#ixzz0xLfU1aRC

Global Warming Signs in Summer

Scientists See Summer Full of Global Warming Signs

This summer's wildfires in Russia, floods in Pakistan, torrential rainfall in China and sweltering heat waves in 15 (out of 50) U.S. states are all signs of the effects of global warming identified by scientists in the U.S. Global Change Research Program, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).

In its report, Global Climate Change in the United States, the U.S. Global Change Research Program predicted that climate change associated with global warming would trigger devastating heat, along with unusually heavy rains in some parts of the world, and extended droughts in others.

While heavy rains may not seem consistent with a warming world, they are, says the Union of Concerned Scientists. "While it may seem counterintuitive, a warming planet generates more precipitation in regions that typically experience rain or snow. That is because a warmer atmosphere absorbs and retains more water from the soil and water bodies--lakes, rivers and oceans. Where storm clouds gather, the atmosphere typically has more water to dump, producing heavier-than-normal storms."

The villain, according to the Concerned Scientists and the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is the ongoing burning of fossil fuels which causes a build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, resulting in a steady increase in the Earth's average temperature.

"Climate scientists have been warning for years about the potential for intense heat waves, droughts and drenching rains in various parts of the world," said Brenda Ekwurzel, a climate scientist with the UCS in a press release. "This intense weather is consistent with well-documented climate change trends over the past several decades. Unless we significantly reduce global warming emissions, we'll likely see even more extreme weather events."

Global Warming: the Climate of Threat

In the present context of environmental awareness, ‘Global Warming’ is the buzzwords that reverberate in every corner of our planet. It is a highly debated issue among environmental scientists & academicians. Though we are not fully aware about global warming but knowing or unknowingly we all, more or less are contributing to ‘global warming & climate change’. Rise in the average temperature near the surface of the earth is scientifically termed as global warming. As per the IPCC (Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change) report the measured average atmospheric temperature near the earth’s surface rose by 0.740 Celsius during the last 100 years (1906-2005).11 out of 12 hottest years on record occurred between 1995-2006. We are living in the midst of constantly changing climatic conditions, largely a result of human interference and if allowed to continue can cause irreparable damage to the flora, fauna & human life. Global warming will have strong effect on the variability of rainfall, drought type of situation and rise in the sea level. The overall change in the natural characteristics of the earth for global warming continuously for a long time period is known as ‘climate change’. So, the climate change is a result of global warming. Climate change is definite if the globe becomes warm & warm.
Global warming and climate change can have serious effect on agriculture. Production & productivity of most of the crops may decrease due to increase in temperature and decrease in water availability. Quality of crops may also be detoriated. Increasing temperature will increase fertilizer requirement for the same volume of production & result in higher GHG emissions. Impacts of climate change arise from global warming in forest ecosystem is also very high. According to the IPCC reports, even with a modest global warming, most forest ecosystem will be impacted through changes in forest species composition, biodiversity & plant productivity. Plant flowering, bird arrival, date of breeding in flowering all will be affected from climate change. Forest dependent communities will also be affected from such impacts of climate change in forests. More than 30 million people of India are directly involved in gathering & trading non-timber forest products such as fruits, seeds, flowers, leaves, honey, gum etc. Any impact on forest biodiversity will have adverse implications for the livelihoods for forest dependent communities like tribal. Again critically endangered species of forest could become extinct for such type of change in natural setup. Again, one of the most important & visible indicators of climate change is the recession of glaciers and snow covers in many parts of the world. The Himalayan Glaciers feed seven of Asia’s greatest rivers including Ganga & Brahmaputra. They ensure water supply to about one billion people. Continuous melting down of glaciers in Himalayan region is expected to have serious consequences on bio-diversity, agriculture production, livelihood system of people. On the other hand coastal belts are more prone to the devastating impacts of global warming. Global assessment shows that 1 meter sea level rise can lead to welfare loss of $ 1,259 million, in India equivalent to 0.36% of GNP. Sundarbans, the group of 102 islands is located along the Bay of Bengal. The sea level around the Sundarbans is rising due to global warming & the islands are under threat of getting submerged. 2 of 102 islands have already submerged.

more:
http://www.morungexpress.com/analysis/53450.html

is Global Warming undeniable?

Scientists say global warming is undeniable 

THE world will be hotter by 2100 than at any time in the past few million years if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, the Australian Academy of Science warns in a new report.
Global emissions would need to peak within the next 10 years, and then decline rapidly for the world to have a better than 50-50 chance of avoiding a temperature rise of 2 degrees, it concludes.
Produced and reviewed by two expert panels, the 24-page report, The Science of Climate Change, Questions and Answers, acknowledges there are still scientific uncertainties about some of the details of climate change.
These include its impact at specific locations, the precise timing and size of future changes, and when high-risk tipping points might be reached.
But broad conclusions about the impact of high emissions are based on strong evidence and rigorous scientific scrutiny, its authors said. ''We are very confident that human-induced global warming is a real phenomenon.''
A former academy president, Kurt Lambeck, said the report was aimed at clarifying often contradictory comments from non-scientific ''instant experts''.
The report refutes many of the claims made by climate change sceptics, such as that the globe has been cooling since 1998, the sun is mainly to blame for recent warming, recent warming is part of natural variability, and volcanoes emit more carbon dioxide than human activities.
The report ''unambiguously'' supported the conclusion that a continued reliance on fossil fuels would lead to a warmer world, with predictions ranging from a 2 to 7 degree increase by 2100.
Source : http://www.smh.com.au

 

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