More difficult to prove is a possible connection between the disaster and global warming, which is being bandied about in the media. As climate scientists are often quick to point out, there is danger in ascribing any particular weather event to longer term trends, such as a rise in the Earth's temperatures. Still, there is some cause for concern.
Climate scientist Gavin Schmidt, who works for NASA and Columbia University, told The Daily Green that the Pakistan disaster, "Demonstrates that people are very vulnerable to weather-based changes. It's something that I don't think has been stressed enough." Schmidt added, "We're talking about more people affected than the entire population of New York City."
Schmidt acknowledged that it's very hard to make a connection to a single event when it comes to global warming, but he said we often see a statistical correlation between rising greenhouse gases and increasing frequency and severity of these types of disasters. He pointed to analysis published in the journal Nature that showed there was a much higher likelihood of the devastating European heat wave of 2003 as a result of our post-industrial atmosphere. "Things that used to be one-in-100 year events maybe now are one-in-25-year events," he explained. "It's important to remember that these kinds of anomalies increase in likelihood much faster than you might expect just looking at the few degrees of warming."
According to National Geographic, the northern Indian Ocean has warmed two degrees Fahrenheit since the 1970s. Warmer water releases more moisture into the air, which can lead to bigger monsoon rains. It's also true that the ongoing El Nino cycle is probably a factor, as the periodic warming of ocean waters can also intensify storms. "The key message is that it's not just natural variability and not just global warming," but a combination of both, Trenberth said.
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